Markets - JYOTIVARDHAN JAIPURIA

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JYOTIVARDHAN JAIPURIA, Head of Research of BofA-ML 

Source: CNBC 

Greece, Budget, Credit Policy key triggers now 


“one could see markets rally from lows on sharp RBI rate cut.” Jaipuria expects rate-cut rally in H2CY12.

JYOTIVARDHAN JAIPURIA, Head of Research of BofA-ML 

With the CSO expectations of India's FY12 GDP coming in below 7%, there is a consensus that the Reserve Bank will cut rates in April.

Speaking about markets, which have seen a run-away rally in the month of January, Jaipuria said a lot depends on the Greece outcome. However, the impending Budget and Credit policy will be key triggers for the bourses in the days to come.

At the moment, foreign investors are looking to buy Indian equities at every dip, he said.

He ruled out any downgrades in earnings in this fiscal and termed third quarter numbers of Indian Corporates as In-line with expectations.

Jaipuria sees telecom companies carrying the burden of regulatory concerns for some more time and says the infrastructure sector will continue to under perform due to implementation issues. 

JIM WALKER, MD & Founder of Asianomics Ltd. 

JIM WALKER, MD & Founder of Asianomics Ltd. 

Jim Walker, Founder and MD, Asianomics (FOMC), in a chat with ET Now, talks about the current situation of world monetary markets and the ways to deal with it. Excerpts

Source: www.livemint.com 

It will be tougher for the market to rise further

The Chinese policy has begun to tighten. With that tightening we are expecting a pretty hard landing in the Chinese economy. Our expectation is for about 4% nominal GDP growth this year, close to zero in real terms, and I think that's not quite understood around the world.

I think for sure India was oversold during the course of 2011. Not only the Indian stock market but also the rupee. Our recommendation to clients in early December was to go long on the dollar-rated ETF (ex- change-traded fund) in India, which were at that point about 53 for the rupee against the dollar. Now it's just above 48 and now our recommendation is to take profits in that because there's still a long slog ahead for the Indian economy.

Fiscal deficit is not under control. We're likely to get more populist over the course of the next few weeks in the run up to the Uttar Pradesh election. I don't think that's going to be very well received by foreign investors.

I'm not sure that the market is factoring in 6% fiscal deficit. We're certainly factoring in 6% for fiscal year 2013; probably in fiscal year 2012 it's going to be in the 5-5.5% range. As I say, when we take into account what's happening at the state level and over and above the state electricity, then really, overall, we're looking at a fiscal deficit in India of about 10-11%, and that's too high relative to where it needs to be at this particular point in time when everybody in the world is focused on fiscal deficit.