Tough times for container train operators (CTOs) like Concor
and GDL unlikely to last…
Current volume growth is lackluster due to adverse macro and
capacity constraints at major ports while margin is facing pressure due to high
empty running
…as economic recovery along with capacity expansion at JNPT,
Chennai ports (75% of major ports volume) to accelerate growth over FY13E-15E
Indian container volumes to continue to grow at nominal GDP
growth over medium term. We expect India’s nominal GDP to grow at 13-13.5% over
FY14E-FY15
Chennai additional capacity to be operational in Q4FY13E,
while JNPT capacity to come on stream in FY15; expansion at key minor ports
like Mundra and Pipavav to also aid volume growth.
Valuations yet to
factor in ‘better times ahead’; initiate coverage on –
Concor: BUY - CMP Rs 917; TP Rs 1,050; Upside 15%
Expansion through PFT to help Concor capitalize on its
pan-India presence through better asset utilization; expected increase in
contribution from warehousing and other value-added services to drive
operational performance
Recommend BUY with SoTP-based TP of Rs 1,050 (core business
at Rs 975/sh and PFT business at Rs 75/sh); implied PE of 13x FY14E EPS of Rs
80.2
GDL: BUY – CMP Rs 139; TP Rs 190; Upside 37%
GDL trades at attractive cash flow yield of 6% - company
expected to generate free cash flow of Rs 3bn (post capex of Rs 4 bn) over
FY12-15E
Strong free cash flows from CFS business to continue (Rs 4.5
bn over FY12-15E); strategic terminals presence (Faridabad terminal to be
operational in FY14E) to drive Rail business growth. Scaling up of Cold chain
business to aid potential value unlocking in the medium term
Recommend BUY with SoTP-based TP of Rs 190 (CFS business at
Rs 122/sh, Rail business at Rs 31/sh and Cold chain business at Rs 37/sh);
implied PE of 13x FY14E EPS of Rs 14.5
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